LendRisk Analytics · Independent analytics · Subprime credit

We read loan books,
and write down what they said.

LendRisk Analytics is an independent analyst's desk covering subprime credit: the buy-here-pay-here operators who write the paper, the credit unions and banks that fund it, and the lenders that securitize it. The work is published research, post-mortems on the ones that failed, models that flag trouble in the filings a year before it lands as a charge-off, and work with dealers all over the country. The instruments at the bottom of this page are the methods, published so the work can be checked.

23
Published pieces
201
Bank failures autopsied
6,272
Credit unions on the desk
7,769
Banks on the desk
44
Auto ABS deals, loan by loan
7
Instruments, formulas published
The work
Four things, done in public wherever the data allows.
Public filings in · every formula shown
01 · Research
What the tape said
Twenty-three published pieces on lendriskanalytics.com. Each one starts from the public record, a 10-K, an ABS-EE loan tape, an NCUA call report, and reads it the way a credit committee would have needed to before the news broke. Every figure is cited to a named source or labeled synthetic, and the method is printed beside the number.
Read the series → How the pieces are built →
02 · Post-mortems
What was visible, and when
Seven subprime auto operators failed or stopped originating since 2023. We went back to what each one filed and wrote down what could be seen, and how early. On the desks the same reading runs at scale: 201 bank failures since 2011, each set against the score it carried in its last call report, and every credit union that stopped filing, cut by size, field of membership and year.
Tricolor, PrimaLend, Car-Mart → Bank autopsies → Credit union post-mortems →
03 · Models
Indicators tested against the ones that disappeared
A leading indicator that has never been checked against an institution that failed is a guess. The credit union score is validated against 1,749 charters that stopped filing. The repossessed-inventory signal, built from a call-report field three quarters of small credit unions leave blank, sorts next-year vehicle charge-offs from 0.87% to 1.75% by quartile. Among credit unions with low delinquency it separates 1.11% from 0.67%. Delinquency reports a promise already broken. Repo inventory is the loss in transit.
The finding, Issue 12 → How the score is validated →
04 · Dealers
Dealers, all over the country
We work with dealers all over the country, on their own books, under NDA. The instruments below are the same reads, on your own tape, in your own browser.
The cash clock, on your own tape → Read a full tape →
Research · start here
Three pieces that carry the argument.
All 23 on lendriskanalytics.com
What the tape said · Post-mortem
Tricolor, PrimaLend, Car-Mart: three failures, one blind spot
When the borrower originates the loans, services the loans and reports on the loans, every downstream party is reading a tape one party writes. Tricolor showed what happens when that party writes fiction. The other two showed the structure gives a lender too little warning even when nobody lies.
Read the piece →
Issue 9 · Operators
The cash problem
Every buy-here-pay-here deal buries the operator's own cash, and on the worked curve it does not come back until month 19. Industry bad debt went 21% to 28% in three years. Seven operators failed or stopped originating since 2023, and none of them ran out of customers.
Read the piece →
Issue 12 · Credit unions · Model
The lot behind the branch
One field in the NCUA call report, repossessed vehicle inventory, predicts next year's vehicle charge-offs and holds inside every asset band. Most small credit unions do not report it. The piece states where the signal is weaker than delinquency, and where it sees what delinquency cannot.
Read the piece →
The desks · public filings, read at scale
Every credit union, every bank, the filers and the deals.
Open to anyone · text edition at /llms.txt
Credit Union Desk · /cu/
CU Intelligence and the Participation Desk
Every federally insured credit union across 41 quarters of NCUA 5300 filings: a tape read with the formula behind every cell, ten-year trends, peer comparison, saved screens, and the post-mortem studio. Beside it, the loan participation market mapped from both sides' filings. For the CFO, the CLO and the buyer of paper.
6,272
Charters, live or departed
41
Quarters of 5300 filings
1,940
Active participants
Open the credit union desk →
Lending Markets · /markets/
The Bank Desk and Auto Credit Intelligence
Every FDIC-insured bank across 62 quarters: liquidity and run risk, securities losses against equity, the warehouse line, the auto book, and 201 failures autopsied. Beside it, the SEC-filing consumer lenders and the auto ABS deals read loan by loan. For the bank analyst, the ABS investor and the warehouse lender.
7,769
Bank certificates
26
SEC-filing lenders
44
Auto ABS deals
Open lending markets →

Rules on every desk: each number is a filed figure or arithmetic on filed figures with the formula shown. A flag is a question, never a finding. Every verdict says could be. Departed means stopped filing. The data is a quarter old by construction. Not a rating.

One search across everything →
Instruments · the methods, working
Seven reads you can run on your own book.
Runs in your browser · nothing uploaded
Portfolio · Upload a tape
Portfolio Analyzer
Drop a loan-level CSV and get static-pool loss curves by vintage, delinquency aging, dealer-by-vintage attribution and concentration. Compare any two origination quarters side by side.
Open the dashboard →
Cash flow · Loan tape
Cash Clock
Every car you finance has your own cash buried in it. This reads your tape and shows the day each deal gives that cash back, which deals never will, and how much is trapped in accounts that went quiet.
Open the cash clock →
Loss drivers · Direct lenders
Segments Driving Loss
Scans every segment, credit band, vehicle age, term, LTV, geography, ranks them by share of total loss, and flags the two-way combinations the aggregate hides.
Open loss drivers →
Covenant · Breach projector
Covenant Breach Projector
Current metrics plus monthly rate of change. Returns the month each warehouse trigger breaks and the runway. The slope a CFO reads as fine turns into a month-6 cash sweep.
Run projector →
Network · Dealer scorecard
Dealer Scorecard
Rank every dealer in your network by loss rate, severe lates, EPD and composite health. See which relationships drive the deterioration, by name.
Open scorecard →
Portfolio · Risk calculator
Portfolio Risk Calculator
Three inputs, loss rate, severe lates, weighted FICO, scored 0 to 100 against warehouse covenant bands. A composite read on where you stand.
Run calculator →
Recovery · State law map
State Recovery Law Map
Self-help repo rights, right-to-cure notice periods, deficiency judgments and wage garnishment across all 50 states. The four levers that decide how much of a defaulted loan you recover.
Open the map →
Your tape never leaves this browser · Nothing transmitted · Refresh to wipe See all seven run on one synthetic book: the sample portfolio read
Working a live book
The instruments are the method. The work is the read.

Everything on this page runs on public filings, sample data or synthetic books, so you can see how each read is built before you trust it. On a live book it goes further: your own loan tape, under NDA, with the findings written up and walked through with you. That is the part operators and their funders put to work.

Book 30 minutes→ Send a note→
Independent analysis, at the portfolio level, after origination. Not affiliated with, sponsored by, or representing any current or former employer.