Tool 06 · Covenant

Covenant Breach Projector

Base · Δ NCO +0.18 / mo · Δ DPD +0.09 / mo

Runway

23mo

First to break

NCO @ 13.50%

What this means

Set your numbers below and this updates in real time.

1 · Where you are today

NCO rate9.81%

0%safe <4warn 4-818%

90+ DPD6.90%

0%safe <3warn 3-512%

Weighted FICO578

500risk <560watch 560-590680

2 · How fast each is moving

Δ NCO / mo+0.18

improvingflatworsening

Δ DPD / mo+0.09

improvingflatworsening

Δ FICO / mo-1

drift downflatimproving

3 · Your warehouse covenant limits

NCO cap13.50%

6%typical 8-1018%

DPD cap10.00%

3%typical 4-612%

FICO floor570

500typical 560-590640

NCO rate

90+ DPD

Covenant cap

Source · user inputs · 18 mo forward · linear projection

NCO Rate

9.81%

cap · 13.50%

Breach in 23 mo

90+ DPD

6.90%

cap · 10.00%

Breach in 38 mo

Weighted FICO

578

floor · 570

Breach in 8 mo

NCO

90+ DPD

FICO

Methodology. Linear projection: value at month n = current + n × monthly Δ. Breach month per metric = ceil((cap - current) / slope) for caps, ceil((current - floor) / |slope|) for floors. The earliest breach drives the Runway headline. Real portfolios accelerate or decelerate non linearly, particularly as roll rates compound. Treat the breach month as a planning guide. Caps default to standard warehouse facility structures: NCO 8 to 10 percent, DPD 4 to 6 percent, FICO 560 to 590 minimum.